Spot "very price boom" red thread on disk

Thread rose again yesterday, close to 4,000 yuan / ton mark, as of yesterday's close, the main rebar futures 1710 contract closed at 3565 yuan / ton, the day rose%。
China Securities Journal reporter Statistics found that in the process of rising steel prices, the emergence of a strong position with yesterday, turnover is an increase of 5% on the basis of the large base。 Analysts believe that the current rebar futures broke through key support points, the future is expected to continue to rise。
Forced bull support line according to the Shanghai ranking members of the transaction and position information on the rebar futures yesterday, the total turnover of million hands, compared with the previous trading day increased million in hand; futures companies pay total amount, compared with the total amount of sell orders on a May increase million in hand。 Long and short stalemate forces。
From the main seat of view, to the main 1710 contracts, for example, currently many empty seats in the top three remain the same, namely, Wing futures seats, CITIC Futures seats, Huatai futures seats; and the above three seats were net long positions in the pattern。 Among them, the seats Wing futures net long positions million in hand, net long positions CITIC Futures seats million in hand, net long positions Huatai futures seats million in hand, bulls accounted for% and%%。
"From a technical point of view, since nearly a month, a significant increase in rebar futures positions 850,000 hand into late June, the main long positions significantly dominant。 Graphics from a technical point of view, futures close at five Zhoulian Yang, technical indicators MACD red column appeared, and appeared the end of departure, indicating that the rise in the middle may have just started, once the breakthrough price point of 3500, is expected to impact on 4000 points。 "Shi Lei, director of futures research institute represents a new era。 In her view, more than the current 3600 yuan / ton price to continue to rise, it is a welcome signal。
Spot market is "very price boom" with the fundamentals if it said Shi Lei, from the supply side, the current high prices prompted profit per tonne blast furnace started enthusiasm, crude steel output in March-May remained above 70 million tons of historically high levels。 On the demand side, the monthly new housing construction area increased in April and May, which is consistent with the seasonal construction season。
Steel exports for two consecutive months dropped to below 8 million tons, while the monthly amount of investment in infrastructure in April and May then rebounded for two consecutive months, as a whole better than expected, but week in and week rebar social inventory dropped to only about 3.8 million tons, also confirms this point。
This is to support the foundation rebar prices nearly six months in 2800-3500 yuan / ton range bound。 Plus factors to boost the removal of "the bars" deadline is approaching, and the price premium spot and so far, rebar prices move up sharply since the beginning of June, rapid fermentation rally two weeks in late June and early July, thread steel main contract already break 3500 points along the shock interval, the discount between the spot price and contracted to 200 yuan / ton from 500 yuan / ton, the spot market is also very price boom slightly。
Looking to the future evolution of fundamentals, Shi Lei believes that the high profit per tonne, blast furnace operating rate picked up again, crude steel production will remain high, which will also pull double iron ore and coke, to promote the return to a reasonable profit per tonne range; investment growth speed appears Guaitou signal, after the rainy season, construction steel consumption will decline, while steel exports for two consecutive months dropped to below 8 million tons, investment in infrastructure projects overweight, but in the short term to offset the increase in real estate investment speed down the negative impact。
Therefore, the demand side is difficult to have a significant increment, thus further enhancing the price。

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